Climate Change: Lack of Historical Awareness, Failed Predictions, and Electricity Concerns

The Week That Was: 2024-04-06 (April 6, 2024)

Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)

The Science and Environmental Policy Project

Quote of the Week: "Everything is determined, the beginning as well as the end, by forces over which we have no control. It is determined for the insect, as well as for the star. Human beings, vegetables, or cosmic dust, we all dance to a mysterious tune, intoned in the distance by an invisible piper."

• Albert Einstein

Number of the Week: 25% since 2019

THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

Scope: This TWTW addresses the State of the Climate presented by Ole Humlum and the lack of knowledge of recent climate history presented by Ralph Alexander. Further, it briefly presents a bibliography for Climate: The Movie by Andy May, and further discusses the use of the linear no threshold model by organizations that abuse the scientific method by using it, ignoring that humans are living organisms capable of repairing themselves. Also presented are the absurd steps taken by those who claim weather events are caused by climate change and the coming shortage of US electricity generation that Washington ignores.

Participants in this week's article cited articles from Science Magazine, Energy and Environment, and Climate Change.

Since 2019, the percentage of press coverage of climate change has dropped by 25%, indicating a waning interest in the topic. This decline is likely due to the lack of an observable climate crisis and the failure of climate models to accurately predict the course of Earth's climate. This week, we examine some of the key issues related to this topic, including an evaluation of Ole Humlum's report on the state of the climate and Ralph Alexander's analysis of weather extremes in historical context. We also discuss a bibliography for Climate: The Movie and the abuse of the scientific method in using the linear no threshold model. Additionally, we explore the absurd steps taken by those who claim weather events are caused by climate change and the impending shortage of US electricity generation that Washington is ignoring.

State of the Climate: Ole Humlum's report on the state of the climate presented a comprehensive assessment of Earth's climate based on observational data, rather than numerical models. The report highlights the many natural variations in climate and emphasizes that the global climate has remained in a quasi-stable condition within certain limits for millions of years, despite important variations playing out over longer and shorter periods. While there is no evidence of a climate crisis, it is crucial to recognize that many components and their mutual couplings in the global climate system are still not fully understood.

Weather Extremes in Historical Context: Ralph Alexander's report on weather extremes refutes the popular belief that extreme weather events are more common and intense today due to climate change. The report presents numerous historical examples of extreme weather events that match or exceed those experienced today. It emphasizes that collective memories of extreme weather are short-lived, and many people are unaware of the historical context of weather extremes.

Bibliography for Climate: The Movie: Andy May's film Climate: The Movie serves as an accessible introduction to the topic of climate change. To complement the film, May has compiled a comprehensive bibliography of resources on the subject. The bibliography provides a valuable reference for those seeking to explore the scientific evidence and perspectives related to climate change.

Abuse of the Scientific Method: Some organizations abuse the scientific method by using the linear no threshold model to claim that low levels of chemicals are harmful to human health. However, this model ignores the fact that living organisms, such as humans, are capable of repairing themselves and adapt to changing conditions.

Absurd Steps by Those Who Claim Weather Events Are Caused by Climate Change: Some activists and media outlets take absurd steps in claiming that individual weather events are caused by climate change. They often do so without any evidence or scientific basis, causing misinformation and confusion.

Impending Shortage of US Electricity Generation: Despite the ongoing claims of a climate crisis, the United States is forecast to experience an impending shortage of electricity generation due to the closure of reliable coal and gas-fired power plants. This shortage could lead to power outages and a reliance on intermittent renewable energy sources, which pose significant challenges to grid stability and reliability.

This week's article has highlighted pertinent issues related to the state of the climate, the lack of knowledge of historical climate data, and the abuse of scientific methods. Additionally, we have explored the problematic use of linear models and the impending shortage of US electricity generation. These topics underscore the importance of relying on empirical data, critical thinking, and rational decision-making in the context of climate change and energy policy. Ultimately, it is crucial to distinguish between legitimate scientific inquiry and ideological agendas in the ongoing debate over Earth's climate and the future of our energy systems.