Deutsche Bank Turns More Bullish on Economy, Says 1H Recession Risk Has Faded

It looks like the bond market may get a break tomorrow as more forecasters shift to the likelihood of the first U.S. rate cut coming in summer. However, another wobbly stock day is expected as investors try to adapt to this new line of thinking. This shift in sentiment is thanks to recent blowout jobs and growth data, and more caution from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell over the weekend. Deutsche Bank was one of the first banks to call for a slowdown, but they now expect a solid 1.9% growth in 2024, with the first Fed rate cut coming in June, but with a total of just 100 basis points. "When we first adopted a mild recession as our baseline forecast, a key element was that, with an economy far from the Fed's objectives, the history of central bank-induced disinflations showed the path to a soft landing was narrow if not unprecedented," said a team led by Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist. They also noted that the pace of credit condition tightening has eased noticeably, and financial conditions have grown more supportive. "Households have weathered these conditions and the return of student debt payments and sentiment has rebounded as inflation declined, real income growth picked up, and risk assets remain buoyant." The strength of consumer spending has been "surprising," says Deutsche Bank economists, who expected goods spending would revert to its pre-COVID trend eventually. Instead, that higher expenditure on goods seems to be "the new normal." The risks to their new prognosis are greater pass-through from prior Fed tightening and increased geopolitical risks. "We see reasonable prospects that growth continues to surprise to the upside, particularly as financial conditions have eased and with the potential for stronger productivity to continue to provide a boost," said the Deutsche Bank economists.

Overall, Deutsche Bank's year-end S&P 500 forecast of 5,100 is among the highest on Wall Street, and it included their expectation for a mild short recession. Tomorrow's Fed speakers include Cleveland President Loretta Mester speaking at 12 noon, Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari at 1 pm, Boston President Susan Collins at 2 pm, and Philadelphia President Patrick Harker at 7 pm. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen appears before the House Financial Services Committee at 10 am Eastern. Third Point's Dan Loeb and WeWork co-founder Adam Neumann are reportedly exploring the possibility of buying the shared workspace company out of bankruptcy.

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Prospective observational study of peripheral intravenous cannula utilisation and frequency of intravenous fluid delivery in the emergency department: convenience or necessity?

Introduction Over one billion peripheral intravenous cannulas (PIVCs) are inserted worldwide each year. Insertion of PIVCs is associated with pain, phlebitis, occlusion, and medication extravasation as well as the risk of catheter-associated infection, with an associated cost to departmental resources. Previous studies have not assessed if intravenous (IV) fluid delivery