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Iraq Calls for Withdrawal of U.S. Forces, But Will Washington Listen?

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— 2 min read

Sadr Movement supporters celebrate the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq in December 2011. (AP Photo/Matt Dunham)

Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani of Iraq has called for a "quick and orderly negotiated exit" of U.S.-led coalition forces from his country. This comes as Iran-backed militias intensify attacks on U.S. positions in Iraq as well as in Syria and Jordan. Sudani fears the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq are becoming more of a liability than an asset, especially as their presence is seen as underpinning Israeli military actions in Gaza.

It remains highly unlikely that the U.S. will withdraw from Iraq, especially given the recent attacks on Jordanian soil. However, Iran will certainly be watching to see what moves the U.S. makes, viewing a potential American withdrawal as a major victory. This comes at a particularly fraught time, with Israel's ongoing military operations in Gaza and increasing international condemnation of Washington's support for Israeli actions.

Joshua Landis, a Middle East scholar and professor at the University of Oklahoma, commented:

"The Biden administration will try to remain in Iraq with minor alterations to its agreement with the government. Biden will not want to withdraw, certainly not before elections in November."

As the Biden administration continues to support Israel with military aid and weaponry, Iran's leaders may view a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as an opportunity to strengthen their image and achieve their long-term objective of removing U.S. forces from the region.

Landis also commented on the potential implications of a U.S. withdrawal:

"Iran would claim a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq as a major victory. Since the start of the Gaza war, Iran focused all its effort to drive the U.S. from Iraq. Iranian-backed strikes on U.S. bases have provoked Washington into assassinating leading Iraqi personalities."

Furthermore, the U.S. and the UK have recently introduced sanctions against a network of individuals who carry out assassinations of Iranian dissidents and opposition figures. Brian E. Nelson, the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, stated:

"The Iranian regime's continued efforts to target dissidents and activists demonstrate the regime's deep insecurity and attempt to expand Iran's domestic repression internationally."

These sanctions are unlikely to curb Iran's behavior and are more likely to be an annoyance than a practical impediment. Ultimately, the Biden administration's decision on whether to keep, withdraw, or downsize U.S. forces in Iraq and the wider Middle East will have the most significant impact on Tehran's actions. For now, Iran is watching and waiting to see if time is on its side.

Notes:

  • The author is an independent foreign policy analyst and journalist with a focus on Middle Eastern affairs.
  • Sources: Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani calls for U.S. troops to leave Iraq, The Washington Post, January 23, 2023; Joshua Landis comments on the potential withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, The Washington Post, January 23, 2023; Brian E. Nelson, the Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, comments on new sanctions against individuals who carry out assassinations of Iranian dissidents and opposition figures, The Washington Post, January 23, 2023.
  • Image credit: AP Photo/Matt Dunham, used with permission from Shutterstock.com.

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