Is the World Moving Towards a Multipolar World Order? Debating the Claims
The idea of an emerging multipolar world order has become a prominent topic in global geopolitical discourse. There are several indications that the world is moving away from the unipolarity of the post-Cold War era, towards a more multipolar configuration.
Jo Inge Bekkevold, a former Norwegian diplomat, argues that only two nations, the United States and China, possess the economic and military might to constitute a pole in a multipolar world. He claims that alliances like the EU, BRICS, and the RIC Forum lack cohesion and are rife with internal rivalries.
On the other hand, Emma Ashford and Evan Cooper of the Stimson Center disagree with Bekkevold's claims. They argue that the United States and China do not hold the same level of military and economic power as the United States did during the early Cold War years.
Former US diplomat Hugh De Santis believes that power is becoming more diffused among several powerful nations, creating a multipolar world. Though the US military footprint is unrivaled, Washington has failed to deter Russia from invading Ukraine, defeat the Taliban, curb China in the Taiwan Strait, or force rogue states like Iran and North Korea to abandon their nuclear programs. These failures have eroded US credibility and demonstrated that other powers are emerging.
In terms of the economy, the US and Russian market shares have shrunk from 88 percent of global GDP in 1950 to 57 percent today. China and Asia-Pacific nations account for 45 percent of global GDP, with China contributing 19 percent. American corporations and universities are losing prominence in rankings, while China is overtaking the US in patents, electric vehicles, and control over global supply chains.
Heavily sanctioned countries like Iran remain unchecked, and Turkey, India, and Brazil are refusing to follow American dictates on the Ukraine conflict and other issues. These nations are charting their course independently.
While the rise of new blocs like BRICS and SCO and alternate multilateral institutions like the BRICS Investment Bank, China Infrastructure Investment Bank, and global China-led strategic connectivity projects like BRI challenge the Western-led world order, the chinks in the armor of the US and its allies are also apparent.
The future of NATO and the US response to Russia and China are significant concerns for European states. Germany has already allocated €100 billion for military modernization, and EU members may develop their defense capabilities, including acquiring nuclear capabilities against Russia.
In conclusion, there are compelling arguments on both sides of the multipolarity debate, and it remains to be seen whether the world will truly move towards a multipolar world order.