Nevada and Pennsylvania create switch in Senate swing seat rankings as general election tempo takes hold

The top three races on the list -- West Virginia, Montana and Ohio -- aren't going anywhere. They're still the most likely to flip because they're Democratic-held seats in states that twice backed Donald Trump. In fact, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin's decision not to run for reelection has essentially handed the seat to Republicans, who need just one or two seats to flip the Senate, depending on who wins the White House this fall. The presidential race has also settled into a general election tempo. While we're not done with this year's presidential nominating contests, both Trump and President Joe Biden have already secured enough delegates to become their respective parties' presumptive nominees. The changes in the latest Senate rankings come in the next tier of races, which are presidential battleground states that Biden narrowly won over Trump four years ago and that are likely to see a close race again this year. Wall Street Journal polling released Wednesday, for example, showed no clear leader in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while Trump held a slight lead in Arizona. Republicans have a decent shot at flipping these Senate seats, but it's nowhere near as strong as their chances of winning the first three states on the list. Pennsylvania -- which had long been at No. 4 because it was the rare GOP-targeted seat that didn't have a competitive Republican primary -- drops down to No. 6. Democratic Sen. Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick are unopposed in their primaries, but given how settled the other races have also become, they're no longer the only candidates waging a general election fight this

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