Recent Developments in Climate Change Research

Despite an absence of authoritative political leadership on climate change, a recent Nature Comms paper from the Carbon Monitor project highlights that global CO2 emissions may be starting to flatten, marking the first significant decline in emissions since the pandemic. Additionally, a recent Nature survey finds that climate protests are increasing public concern about climate change, with average increases of 1.2 percentage points. Climate model experiments by the Carbon Monitor project indicate that the current annual probability of Cyclone Jasper's rainfall in Cairns (approximately 1.2%) is about 50% greater than in the year 2000. A lack of authoritative political leadership on climate change and emerging evidence on the potential for solar radiation management to reduce the negative outcomes of climate change, are evaluated in a recent Journal of Environmental Psychology paper by Schoenegger and Mintz-Woo. Despite arguments that it poses a moral hazard, the paper finds no meaningful impact from providing information about solar radiation management. In contrast, a study on greenwashing from the journal Energy Research & Social Science argues that the Pathways Alliance coalition of six Canadian oil sands companies engages in a variety of behaviors that constitute net-zero greenwashing. These include selective disclosure, misalignment of claims with actions, displacement of responsibility, non-credible claims, specious comparisons, nonstandard accounting, and inadequate reporting.

A recent study in Nature Communications finds that climate movements have increased public concern about climate change, with average increases of 1.2 percentage points. Sea ice reduction in the summer is investigated using a rare event algorithm in a Climate Dynamics study, which finds extremes of summer Arctic sea ice reduction. A recent Journal of Geophysical Research study combines the latest energy cost data with state-of-the-art grid modeling to quantify three key elements: the cost of reconductoring with advanced conductors; the associated gains in transmission capacity; and the associated contribution to meeting transmission needs by 2035. A recent study in Climate of the Past finds that the annual probability of 1 m of rain from tropical cyclones at Cairns increases from about 0.8% at the end of the 20th century to about 2.3% at the end of the 21st, a factor of almost three. The primary causes of increasing rainfall are stronger cyclones and a moister atmosphere. A recent study in International Journal of Climatology finds that greenhouse gas-induced modification of intense storms over the west African sahel is due to thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Further, a recent study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences finds that soil moisture decline in China's monsoon loess critical zone is more a result of land-use conversion than climate change. A recent study in Climate of the Past finds that the increases in extreme climatic events over the northeastern Tibetan Plateau are associated with atmospheric circulation changes, while a study in Atmospheric Research finds that the collapse and slow recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under abrupt greenhouse gas forcing. Additionally, a recent study in Geophysical Research Letters finds that the radiative effect of two contrail cirrus outbreaks over western Europe can be estimated using geostationary satellite observations and radiative transfer calculations. A recent study in International Journal of Climatology finds that a method for homogenization of complex daily mean temperature data can be applied to Beijing Observatory (1915-2021) and trend analysis. Further, a study in Climate of the Past investigates the European summer vapor pressure deficit.

Finally, a study in Frontiers in Earth Science finds that hydro-geochemical conditions under projected climate change scenarios for the Marshyangdi River, Nepal, can be elucidated.