Senate primaries are just beginning, but the matchups in key races that will determine the balance of power in the chamber look relatively settled seven months before the November election

The latest Senate rankings see some shake-ups after the first fundraising quarter, with Maryland entering the top 10, and Florida exiting. There are still the top three races on the list – West Virginia, Montana and Ohio – aren't going anywhere. They're still the most likely to flip because they're Democratic-held seats in states that twice backed Donald Trump. Pennsylvania drops down to No. 6. Nevada jumps up two spots. Further down the list, Michigan moves above Wisconsin despite Biden having carried Michigan by a healthier margin in 2020. The president's campaign received warnings in the form of protest votes from Democratic primary participants in both states this spring over his handling of Israel's war against Hamas. It's too early to say whether those voters will come out for Biden this fall, but it ups the imperative for Democratic Senate candidates to drive enthusiasm for their campaigns. Republicans have worked to recruit candidates who can at least partially fund their own races, but their business backgrounds and some out-of-state connections have given Democrats plenty of early ammunition. Maryland enters the top 10, and Florida exits. No one expected Maryland to be in play three months ago, but former Gov. Larry Hogan's entrance gave the race a jolt. It would take a lot for such a blue state to elect a Republican senator – something Maryland hasn't done since 1980. And former governors don't have the best track record at winning federal races in home states that trend in the opposite partisan direction. So, it's very possible the race won't stay on the rankings for long. These rankings are a snapshot in time, capturing what is likely to happen were the election held today.

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