Top 100 Prospects In Baseball

Introduction

For the sixth year, EWOS continues its list of the top 100 prospects in baseball. The scouting summaries were compiled with information provided by available data and industry sources, as well as our own observations. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

This article includes a list of the top 100 prospects in baseball as of the start of the 2023 season, as well as future value (FV) graphs depicting the projected career trajectories of the top prospects in the game.

As with every year, it's important to note that this list is subjective, and there are various factors that go into consideration when ranking prospects. These include potential, floor, proximity to the bigs, and age, among others. For a more in-depth explanation of our prospect criteria and Future Value (FV) grades, check out the links at the bottom of the page.

Also, these lists aren't an exact science, so please feel free to disagree or agree with the rankings and FV grades we've assigned in the comments section below.

Top 100 Prospects

1. Juan Soto, OF, Nationals (FV: 80)
2. Harry Styles, OF, Bulldogs (FV: 80)
3. Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles (FV: 80)
4. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals (FV: 80)
5. Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets (FV: 80)
6. Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees (FV: 80)
7. Kumar Rocker, RHP, Mets (FV: 80)
8. Alex Kirillov, OF, Twins (FV: 80)
9. Felipe Caves, OF, Pirates (FV: 80)
10. Paul Skenes, SS, Pirates (FV: 70)
11. Spencer Jones, OF, Giants (FV: 70)
12. Gregory Santos, RHP, Giants (FV: 70)
13. George Kirby, RHP, Mariners (FV: 70)
14. Keoni Cavaco, SS, Royals (FV: 70)
15. Ezequiel Duran, SS, Rangers (FV: 70)
16. Michael Harris II, OF, Braves (FV: 70)
17. Gabriel Moreno, C, Blue Jays (FV: 70)
18. Kevin Parada, C, Rockies (FV: 70)
19. Miguel Vargas, 3B, Dodgers (FV: 70)
20. Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels (FV: 60)

Future Value Distribution Graphs

These graphs depict the career trajectories of the top prospects in the game, based on their future value (FV) grades. The lines represent the probability distribution of each prospect's future performance, with the vertical line representing the average outcome for prospects with the given FV grade. The distributions were manually adjusted based on the specific strengths and weaknesses of each player to better reflect their potential careers.

The graphs are a visual representation of the subjective nature of prospect rankings and the varying degrees of uncertainty in predicting a player's future performance. The distribution of outcomes for any given FV grade is not necessarily symmetrical, and the range of possible outcomes varies for each player, reflecting the differing levels of certainty in their projected careers.

The graphs also highlight the differences in the quality of the players within each tier, with the top prospects generally having a higher probability of achieving the highest levels of success. However, it's important to note that the graphs are not intended to be predictive or guarantee any particular outcome for a player's career. They merely represent the most likely outcomes based on their current potential and the inherent uncertainty in predicting future performance.

These are, in essence, distributions of possible outcomes for each prospect, weighted by our estimates of their probability. A Prospect with a 50 FV grade, for example, has a roughly 30% chance of becoming a perennial All-Star and a 20% chance of flopping and churning out a career that merits a demotion to the bullpen. Because we have subjective opinions–and because there are subjective elements to any objective measure we might use–we manually adjust these shapes so that, for example, we might move the entire distribution left or right depending on our impression of a prospect's hit tool if we think he's more likely to be an average regular than a star. We may raise or lower the ceiling if we think a prospect is more likely to be a solid #2 than a dominant #1. If a player is on the verge of the majors and consistently hitting at the upper levels of the minors, we might compress his curve so that the range of outcomes is narrower because we have more information on him. Conversely, a young international signee might have a much wider distribution as we have less information on him. The graphs should be considered dynamic, and this edition of the list is not necessarily the end point–a player's curve could change based on his performance or if we learn more about him that might change our evaluation. We've merely placed the probabilities as best we can at this moment in time.